It's worth looking beyond Germany's borders. In the first half of 2024, domestic car production fell by 6% compared to the first half of 2023. The decline compared to the last pre-corona year 2019 is even more drastic at 16%.
Looking at new registrations in the first half of 2024, 1.471 million passenger cars were registered (+5%). The difference in growth is also evident here: 1.002 million German brands (+3%) and 470,000 foreign brands (+10%)
The e-car market is only shrinking in Germany and Italy
In Germany, 273,700 e-cars were registered in the first half of the year (-9%), of which 184,100 were BEVs (-16%) and 89,500 PHEVs (-13%). Fig. 1 clearly shows that it is a myth that the e-car market is shrinking overall. Of the 14.0 million e-cars (BEV, PHEV, FCEV) registered worldwide in 2023, 7.3 million were registered in China, the largest single market. The market there continued to grow significantly by 19.7% in the first quarter of 2024, while it shrank by 14.1% in Germany. With the exception of Italy and Germany, the e-car market has seen double-digit growth everywhere in Europe.
Fig. 1: Change in passenger car market in %, 1st quarter 2024 vs. 1st quarter 2023
Fig. 2: Electromobility - passenger cars 2023 (BEV, PHEV, FC)
China rocks the e-car market
More than 50% of electric cars sold worldwide in 2023 rolled off the production line in China, 17% were attributed to Europe and 10% to the USA(Fig. 2). According to IEA forecasts, the market will also grow to 17 million e-vehicles worldwide this year, albeit without any significant growth in Germany.
Fig. 3: Xiaomi SU7 Max, the 'Porsche killer' from Chinese smartphone manufacturer Xiaomi with 101 kWh battery for 700 km range according to CLTC, from 0 to 200 km/h in 10.7 s, priced in China at €28,000 - €39,000
BYD the world market leader wants to produce locally and avoid customs duties
Fig. 4: Opening of the BYD production plant in Thailand on July 4, 2024 and production of the eight millionth new energy vehicle (NEV)BYD from Shanghai has embarked on an international expansion strategy. A first plant is currently being opened in Thailand to establish access to the surrounding Southeast Asian countries(Fig. 4). The investment sum amounted to $490 million for a production capacity of 150,000 e-cars per year. At the same time, around 10,000 new jobs will be created in Thailand.
In 2023, 80,000 e-cars were sold in Thailand, with a total automobile production of 2.5 million vehicles. Around a third of these are expected to be e-cars by 2030.
In the first quarter of 2024, Chinese manufacturers supplied 70% of all e-cars in Thailand. According to 'Counterpoint Research', BYD accounted for 47% of the market share and Tesla only 4%.
BYD is building a production plant in Turkey
BYD is currently building plants in Hungary, Brazil and Uzbekistan and is also planning a production plant in Turkey. Three days after the new EU punitive tariffs came into force, the Turkish Minister of Industry and Technology, Mehmet Fatih Kacir, and BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu signed an agreement for the construction of a production plant in Turkey. The investment volume is expected to be up to 1 billion dollars. This will create 5,000 new jobs in Marisa (greater Izmir area). BYD sees Turkey as a promising location due to its access to the European and Middle Asian markets. Good logistics, a qualified workforce and many suppliers round off the location.
In a nutshell
- In the first half of 2024, domestic passenger car production was down 6% vs. previous year and 16% compared to 2019.
- The e-car market is mostly growing in double digits worldwide, while in Germany it shrank by 9% in the first half of the year, BEV 16%. China dominated global sales of 17 million e-cars with a market share of over 50%.
- BYD from Shanghai, probably the future world market leader for NEVs ahead of Tesla, has embarked on a billion-euro expansion strategy in Thailand, Hungary, Brazil, Uzbekistan and Turkey.
- The eight millionth NEV was produced for BYD worldwide on July 4, 2024 at the new plant in Thailand with a capacity of 150,000 e-cars p.a.
Our only global industry, the automotive industry, is shrinking. Production figures are falling and sales are faltering, especially in China. Gone are the days when VW achieved 41% (2020) of its highly profitable sales in China, BMW 33% and Mercedes 31%. According to Chinese media reports, even Porsche is currently offering double-digit discounts in order to slow down the further decline in sales figures. It is no longer time for ideology, political games or whitewashing, but for a new strategy for Germany!
I wish you a relaxing vacation season.
Yours, Hans-Joachim Friedrichkeit
