Europe will have a minimum demand of 700 TWh of hydrogen in 2050. The steel and chemical industries will then be the major drivers of a hydrogen economy and generate a high demand for imports and electrolysers. A Europe-wide pipeline network will be needed to connect the dispersed centers of production, storage and consumption. These and other findings are contained in the current white paper of the BMBF's hydrogen lead project TransHyDE system analysis, coordinated by Fraunhofer IEG and DECHEMA e.V.
The researchers looked at demand from industry, households and the transportation sector. After 2030, they expect significant cost reductions for green energy sources, but these would not be enough to generate low-temperature, heating and process heat economically. Overall, the researchers have calculated a minimum requirement of 700 TWh of gaseous hydrogen for Europe and the UK in 2050. Hydrogen is only conducive to the implementation of the energy transition if its availability in terms of time and space corresponds to the respective requirements. Accordingly, hydrogen is primarily required for high-temperature and energy-intensive process heat applications, as well as a raw material in industry and central electricity and district heating generation.
Steel and chemical production with high hydrogen demand
In the industrial sector, steel production and associated high-temperature processes alone account for 200 to 300 TWh of hydrogen demand. The advantage: the steel industry requires large quantities of climate-neutral hydrogen, but can also flexibly switch to mixtures of hydrogen with natural gas, which supports a continuous transformation.
The chemical industry could also be an important driver for the expansion of the European hydrogen infrastructure. This is because the production of green ammonia or high-quality chemicals requires large quantities of hydrogen. Co-coordinator Mario Ragwitz, Institute Director at Fraunhofer IEG: "However, it is uncertain whether the entire value chain from solar and wind power to hydrogen production and the production of various chemicals can be realized in Europe. Imports of intermediate products such as green methanol or ammonia could reduce the demand for hydrogen in the European industrial sector. These sensitivities were therefore considered as part of TransHyDE."
" The chemical industry could also be an important driver for the expansion of the European hydrogen infrastructure. "
Transportation as the second most important customer
The second most important consumer of hydrogen is the transportation sector. Co-author Christoph Nolden, Head of Networks, Energy & Process Engineering at Fraunhofer IEG: "International aviation and shipping rely on synthetic fuels based on hydrogen. This will generate a total hydrogen demand of 450 TWh for green fuels in 2050. The biggest uncertainty factor in the transport sector is the competition between direct electrification and hydrogen propulsion via fuel cells in heavy-duty trucks. Various scenarios show an additional demand of up to 380 TWh in 2050 if 40% of heavy-duty trucks were equipped with fuel cells."
Production of hydrogen in Europe
According to the researchers, the production of hydrogen in Europe depends on whether the ambitious targets for the expansion of European wind and solar power plants are achieved. According to co-coordinator Florian Ausfelder, Head of Energy and Climate at DECHEMA e.V., the role of electrolysis in sector coupling will develop considerably during the market ramp-up: "Initially, electrolysers will be integrated into clusters to ensure the safe and continuous supply of hydrogen for industrial use. Once the hydrogen infrastructure is established, electrolysers can feed into the grid while providing flexibility in the electricity network: In this way, grid operators can use electrolysers to reduce the need to expand the electricity grid and thus reduce costs." It should be noted that there may be a shortage of green hydrogen to meet demand, especially at the beginning of the market ramp-up. During this phase, alternatives such as blue hydrogen would have to cover the existing demand.
Transportation and storage of hydrogen and its derivatives
Co-author Tobias Fleiter, Head of the Business Unit Demand Analyses and Projections at Fraunhofer ISI: "Security of supply and the transformation to a hydrogen economy also depend on the expansion of the corresponding transport and storage infrastructure. The modeling results show that a suitably dimensioned hydrogen core network enables the supply of hydrogen demand at minimal overall system costs." The core network could connect the potential producers of renewable energy, especially in the north and south of Europe, with the underground storage facilities and industrial centers in Central Europe.
Co-author My Yen Förster, DECHEMA e.V.: "The repurposing of former natural gas pipelines plays a crucial role in the transformation of the German and European energy system. The research results confirm that this conversion can meet the supply requirements in various scenarios. Imports from non-EU countries appear to be particularly competitive when they are linked to pipelines." Pipeline-linked imports could take place via the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa). Imports of hydrogen derivatives or intermediate products, such as ammonia or sponge iron, are likely to be more cost-effective than their production in Europe.
Partners involved
In addition to the Fraunhofer Research Institution for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Energy IEG and DECHEMA, Gesellschaft für Chemische Technik und Biotechnologie e.V., employees from the following institutes also contributed to the white paper Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Salzgitter Mannesmann Forschung GmbH, Forschungsstelle für Energiewirtschaft FfE, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, VNG AG, Fraunhofer Institute for Factory Operation and Automation IFF, DVGW Research Center at the Engler-Bunte Institute, Institut für Zukunftsenergie- und Stoffstromsysteme gGmbH, Technische Universität Berlin, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE. The TransHyDE lead project is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
