At the end of October 2024, Jülich experts presented a study examining how the European energy transition can be achieved. In a study with a high temporal and spatial resolution, they show how Europe can best exploit its potential. The study is based on detailed calculations using the Ethos energy system modeling software suite developed by the Jülich systems researchers specifically for this task.
The goal: greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050. With the Green Deal, European countries have committed themselves to the energy transition. A team from Jülich Systems Analysis at Forschungszentrum Jülich has investigated how this can be achieved.
Important findings: Nuclear power will only play a role if investment costs fall significantly. Global hydrogen imports will only become more important if the expansion of renewables and grid capacities is sluggish - or if import prices of less than 3 euros per kilogram are to be expected in the short term.
Wind power and photovoltaic systems will be the main sources of Europe's future energy supply. Their share will reach 60 percent in 2030 and over 90 percent in 2050. Nuclear power plants with European safety standards are being discussed as an option. However, the analyses of the Jülich experts have shown that these are not competitive in comparison with photovoltaics and wind power - even taking into account the storage and increased transportation costs, as long as the real investment costs of nuclear power plants are not below 6600 euros per kilowatt. Fusion power plants have not been considered further, as the technical maturity of the technology will only be reached once the Green Deal has been implemented.
Hydrogen becomes essential
Taking other processes and the decarbonization of aviation and shipping into account results in a significantly higher demand for hydrogen than in previous studies. While the chemical industry's demand is estimated to be around 42 megatons per year in 2050, which is largely in line with previous studies, European aviation and shipping traffic will lead to an increase of 30 megatons per year - including for the use of green fuels. In relation to Germany, this will increase the demand for hydrogen by half.
The Jülich researchers found that the demand for electricity and hydrogen can be met cost-effectively by Europe itself. Europe therefore theoretically has the option of securing its own supply without having to rely on imports from other countries.
European hydrogen production is competitive up to an import price of € 3.20 per kilogram in 2030. This applies as long as the expansion of renewable energies proceeds according to plan. Otherwise, it will be necessary to import green hydrogen or its products.
Flexibility and storage must be available in the system to guarantee the security of energy supply. Hydrogen ensures seasonal storage in Europe. Existing underground storage facilities for natural gas can continue to be used for the storage of hydrogen. Nevertheless, it will be necessary to build more than 50 terawatt hours of additional storage capacity in Europe, which corresponds to the construction of around 200 salt caverns.
Germany will become a hydrogen importer
As Europe's largest industrialized nation, Germany will have the greatest demand for electricity and hydrogen in the future, with shares of 11 percent of total electricity demand - taking into account electricity demand for hydrogen, heat and fuel production - and 21 percent of total demand for hydrogen. Greenhouse gas neutrality in Germany, which has been brought forward to 2045, is also fueling the expansion of renewable energies in other European countries through additional electricity and hydrogen imports to Germany. Germany will import 35 percent of its electricity requirements and 80 percent of its hydrogen requirements, which will require the expansion of additional coupling capacities of 90 gigawatts for electricity and 200 gigawatts for hydrogen. The average electricity generation costs within Germany will be around 7 cents per kilowatt hour in 2030 and around 5 cents per kilowatt hour in 2050. Average hydrogen production costs within Germany can be estimated at around 3 euros per kilogram in 2050.
