Based on six models and two fundamental scenarios, the study shows that energy security and climate protection can go hand in hand. The Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, one of the Ariadne partners, uses the "REMod" model to analyze possible transformation paths for the German energy system.
It enables the research team at Fraunhofer ISE to analyze annual developments in the individual sectors in terms ofCO2 emissions and the rate of expansion ofCO2-free technologies for the path towards climate neutrality. For example, reducing gas consumption by 250 TWh alone would lead to a reduction inCO2 emissions of 50 million tons per year compared to the average emissions for the years 2017 to 2021.
In order to leverage the potential of the individual sectors, a trend reversal in the energy industry and building heating is necessary. The proportion of gas-fired power generation in the energy industry, for example, could be reduced by up to 50% by 2023 and by up to 80% by 2025 through the expansion of renewable energies and greater use of coal-fired power plants in the meantime. "The greatest potential for reducing gas consumption in the building sector in the short term lies in adapting heating behavior in the home - for example, lowering the room temperature by one or two degrees, using the heating on demand instead of in continuous operation or intelligent heating controllers," explains Dr. Christoph Kost, co-head of the Ariadne work package "Heat Transition" and Group Leader Energy Systems and Energy Economics at Fraunhofer ISE. "Together with an accelerated ramp-up of heat pumps, connection to district and local heating networks and greater energy-efficient refurbishment of existing buildings, a good 30 % of gas demand in the building sector could be saved in the short term. Accelerating the heating transition will also reduce gas demand in the long term and put the sector on course for climate neutrality." In the industrial sector, gas consumption could theoretically be reduced by almost 50% by 2025, with fuel switching in steam generation and industrial furnaces representing a key lever.
