In the future, it may be necessary to import green hydrogen and its derivatives to Europe, as this is the only way for some industries to achieve climate-neutral production. In a study, Fraunhofer ISE has examined possible supplier countries and drawn up a map.
Green hydrogen and its downstream products ammonia, methanol and synthetic kerosene store electricity from the sun and wind in order to transport it to Europe from more distant regions in an energy-efficient manner. At the same time, many industries that cannot use electricity directly as an energy source will be dependent on these climate-neutral alternatives to fossil gas and oil in the future. On behalf of the H2Global Foundation, the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE has investigated for 39 regions in 12 countries pre-selected by the Foundation where the production of such Power-to-X (PtX) products in combination with transportation to Germany would be most cost-effective by 2030. The result: Brazil, Colombia and Australia offer particularly good conditions for the import of green ammonia, methanol and kerosene. Imports of gaseous green hydrogen could come from southern Europe or North Africa, provided that pipelines are available in time for transportation.
Imports of gaseous green hydrogen could come from Southern Europe or North Africa
"Sustainably produced hydrogen and its derivatives will be indispensable in certain parts of the energy system," says Prof. Dr. Hans-Martin Henning, Institute Director at Fraunhofer ISE. "According to our calculations, imports are a necessary and economically viable supplement to local hydrogen production." PtX projects on a gigawatt scale, which this study considers, have long planning and construction phases, so that the realization of the first large-scale projects in suitable production countries should already be initiated now. According to calculations by Fraunhofer ISE, Germany will need both domestically produced and imported PtX energy sources in the single-digit terawatt hour range by 2030.
"According to our calculations for the 12 countries pre-selected by H2Global, the local production costs for gaseous green hydrogen are nowhere as low as in Brazil, Australia and northern Colombia. It costs between 96 and 108 euros to produce a megawatt hour of green hydrogen there, or around 3.20 to 3.60 euros per kilogram," says Dr. Christoph Hank, lead author of the study. "If long-distance transportation by ship in the form of either liquid hydrogen or ammonia is taken into account, this results in supply costs for Germany of 171 euros per megawatt hour in relation to the energy content of both liquid hydrogen and ammonia under the best possible conditions." The high combined full-load hours for solar and wind energy plants in these countries and the associated high capacity utilization of the currently still capital-intensive power-to-X processes are a key advantage of these countries, according to the study. A large distance between production and use is not an exclusion criterion for ammonia, methanol or kerosene due to their high energy density and established shipping logistics.
The study sees an alternative in the import of gaseous hydrogen via pipeline to Germany with the possibility of subsequent processing into its downstream products on site. "Regions in Southern Europe and North Africa perform best in this scenario," explains Dr. Christoph Hank. "Provided that the first sections of this pipeline infrastructure are built by 2030, large quantities of sustainably produced hydrogen could then be transported to Europe, and therefore also Germany, in a very cost-efficient manner." In the analysis, regions in Algeria, Tunisia and Spain have the lowest supply costs for gaseous hydrogen, including transportation in a natural gas pipeline converted to hydrogen, at 137 euros per megawatt hour. This corresponds to 4.56 euros per kilogram of green hydrogen.
According to the study, the key criteria for cost-efficient PtX generation are advantageous wind and PV combinations, high plant utilization and comparatively low capital costs. "We have generally found that the combination of good wind and solar power conditions has a very positive effect on the cost of hydrogen production, often more than if a region has outstandingly good conditions for either wind or solar power generation," explains Dr. Christoph Kost, responsible for the renewable energy analyses of the Fraunhofer ISE study. Ultimately, the lowest possible generation costs for renewable electricity are the decisive factor. Further significant cost reductions can be expected in the future for renewable energies, electrolysis and through optimization, scaling and ramp-up of the entire PtX value chain. These will lead to a further significant reduction in the production and import costs of sustainable energy sources after 2030.
The techno-economic results of the study are based on extensive country analyses with regard to their potential for generating electricity from renewable energies. The regions identified as promising were then analyzed in a further step with regard to the production of green hydrogen and its downstream products. "The detailed design and optimization of the individual PtX parks was then carried out using 'H2ProSim', a simulation environment for PtX value chains developed by Fraunhofer ISE," explains Marius Holst, responsible for the PtX simulations at Fraunhofer ISE as part of the study. The authors of the study emphasize that the development of a global hydrogen industry must also meet the domestic demand for renewable energy and sustainable energy sources of future exporting countries and that the establishment of a production and export infrastructure must be coordinated and harmonized with local stakeholders.
The study is available free of charge at
