'Sunny weather ahead' - according to analyst Malcolm Penn (Future Horizons), the chip market will bottom out in the first quarter of 2024, after which the situation will improve. But how sustainable is this development?
Your forecast was met with relief - it's been a long time since you've been this positive, Mr. Penn.
In September 2020, Future Horizons predicted double-digit growth for the market, which would lead to an undersupply and shortage. At the time, we were criticized as 'eternal optimists'! It will always be a cyclical industry, the degree of volatility reflects this.
You question how sustainable the current recovery is ...
The 'recovery' is very puzzling indeed. Current deliveries still show a recession, but in terms of sales for the year as a whole, double-digit growth is to be expected. From this I conclude that it is a 'spreadsheet' recovery, not a real one. I fear that the value growth rate bubble will burst around mid-2024. Growth in unit sales can hopefully cushion this. But I ask myself: if demand is still weak and we are selling less than two years ago, how can the industry have recovered? This is not a sustainable situation, more of a magical illusion.
How do you see the semiconductor market as a whole in 2024? Do you even dare to make a forecast for the PCB market?
In 2024, semiconductors are expected to grow by 16% in dollar terms, but only by a single-digit percentage in terms of unit sales. Future Horizons does not follow the PCB market. However, low growth in semiconductors also means lower growth for PCBs. However, the outflow from inventories could have a positive impact on demand for PCBs. It depends more directly on economic development. But the economy, at least in Europe, does not look good at all.
