"Companies and consumers will have to prepare for shortages in the supply of goods in 2024," predicts Jane Enny van Lambalgen, CEO of the consulting and management firm Planet Industrial Excellence and UN consultant. She explains: "There are more black swans on the move around the globe than ever before." A black swan is an unpredictable event such as a pandemic, "whereby many events that seem unimaginable at first glance are announced long in advance." For example, van Lambalgen includes tightening security around the world with an impact on supply chains, such as the attack by the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.
The conflict between China and the USA over Taiwan has been foreseeable for some time and would lead to massive supply bottlenecks. She is also certain that the fighting over the Gaza Strip will have an impact on many supply chains worldwide in 2024. Jane Enny van Lambalgen believes that the increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and forest fires due to climate change is just as foreseeable. The resulting damage to infrastructure and production facilities could lead to production stoppages and supply bottlenecks virtually overnight
A black swan is an unpredictable event such as a pandemic
Van Lambalgen advises businesses to manage risk by taking into account geopolitical tensions, natural disasters and cyberattacks on their own company and supply chain. She recommends at least two suppliers for each component, preferably spread across two different continents, and flexibility in software. The diversification of supply chains is the order of the day. When it comes to just-in-time production, she advises readjusting the balance between on-time delivery and safety stock. She says: "In case of doubt, it is better to strengthen delivery reliability at the expense of costs than to not be able to deliver at all." In her opinion, this also applies to securing critical raw materials, whose extraction areas are often located in politically unstable regions.
Van Lambalgen points out that entire branches of industry are dependent on critical raw materials, including electronics, the automotive industry, the energy sector and medical technology. According to her, the supply chain law also involves risks, as an upstream producer can turn out to be non-compliant virtually overnight. Companies are well advised to take this worst-case scenario into account in their planning and have alternative strategies ready.
