In the first quarter of 2022, incoming orders in the German machine tool industry rose by 44% compared to the same period last year. Orders from both Germany and abroad increased by 44% each.
"In the first quarter of this year, orders for our industry continued to run smoothly," said Dr. Wilfried Schäfer, Executive Director of the VDW (German Machine Tool Builders' Association), Frankfurt am Main, commenting on the result. "They were only 8 percent below the record year of 2018," he continues. However, it is to be expected that the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war will become more apparent in the coming months. On the one hand, this is indicated by the significantly lower growth rates at the current margin. On the other hand, the supply bottlenecks are still the biggest problem and are far from being resolved. "This issue will be with us for many months to come," fears Schäfer.
Supply bottlenecks are also the reason why production is still lagging far behind incoming orders. In the first quarter, it only rose by a disproportionately low 6 percent. The VDW has therefore lowered its production forecast for the current year from 14 to 8 percent growth.
"So far, the high demand has ended up in inventory, as many machines cannot be put into operation because one or two parts are still missing," explains Schäfer. However, they are only recorded as production once the machines have been loaded onto trucks or ships. China is currently the great unknown. The lockdown in numerous major cities and industrial centers is preventing customers from taking delivery of machines and service personnel from traveling to customers.
Like production, exports also failed to gain momentum. They rose only slightly by 1 percent. Europe and America declined slightly by 2 and 1 percent respectively. Asia grew by 8 percent, with Central and South Asia as well as South East Asia growing much more significantly than East Asia. Exports to China, the largest sales market, are only growing moderately at the beginning of the year at plus 4%. While China accounts for a good 19% of German exports, the US market accounts for a much smaller share of 13%. Exports to the USA fell by 6% in the first quarter. Italy is in third place in the ranking of the ten most important sales markets with an increase and a share of 6% each. After a lean previous year, business with Switzerland recovered noticeably with 70% growth in the first quarter. It has thus returned to fourth place in the ranking. Exports to Austria are down on the very strong first quarter of 2021. Exports to Poland fell just short of the previous year's level. The Netherlands remains strong, taking in 11% more machine tools in the first quarter than in the previous year. France continues its downward trend, falling by 18%. Mexico and Turkey complete the top 10 and stand out positively with double-digit growth rates of 27% and 26% respectively.
Imports grew by a total of 20%, driven by Switzerland, Japan and China, whose deliveries increased significantly.
"All in all, the uncertainties for the economic development of our industry remain enormous," summarizes VDW Executive Director Schäfer. "A prolonged war in Ukraine, further soaring prices for energy, logistics and raw materials and a complete halt to oil and gas supplies from Russia would have a significant impact. Nevertheless, the high order backlog on the books is of course supportive. This means that there is a chance that some of this year's growth loss will turn into sales in the coming year. International machine tool consumption, which is expected to increase by 10 percent this year, could also provide a tailwind," concludes Schäfer.
