In the vehicle sector, the currently dominant fuels petrol and diesel will take a back seat and make way for alternative drive systems. The two dominant concepts here are the battery and the fuel cell with various application scenarios in the drive portfolio of the future. However, the shift towards electromobility in the mobility and logistics sector not only affects the underlying drive technology, but also the energy industry.
In its new meta-study "Logistics, Energy and Mobility 2030", the technology organization VDE examines which developments are possible by 2030. The existing players, some of which are established elsewhere, such as oil companies and electricity producers, will have to adapt to the new framework conditions. It will be unavoidable to adapt existing concepts in order to meet the changing demand for drive energy and to be able to compete with new players on the market. The logistics and mobility of the future will be powered by renewable energy. In the study, we therefore also describe different, sometimes competing logistics scenarios for urban areas in order to show how the future can be designed in a very practical way for the user. The experts also examined fuel cell applications as an alternative in long-distance transportation and the potential of other alternative fuels. The importance of electromobility will continue to grow. In 2019, the number of electric vehicles (BEV, PHEV, FCEV, etc.) worldwide amounted to 4.79 million. By 2030, this figure could increase thirty-fold to 150 million vehicles.
Fuel cells represent a flexible and technically mature drive energy, especially for heavy-duty and long-distance transportation by 2030. Hydrogen vehicles are expected to penetrate the market from 2030 to 2050. The energy market will become more heterogeneous in the future. Different drive energies will coexist in 2030. However, a fundamental transformation process towards battery and fuel cell use should have taken place.
The infrastructure must also be aligned with the changed framework conditions. Charging technologies and infrastructure for both battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles will have to be expanded in order to meet the increasing demand. The steady increase in electric vehicles represents a demanding but manageable challenge for the 2030 electricity grid. The study is free of charge.
