The German aluminum industry also recorded a significant drop in production in the third quarter of 2020. Raw metal production fell by 9%, continuing the trend seen since the start of the year (-13%). Companies in the semi-finished products industry reported a 17% drop in production, which is once again significantly lower than the year to date (-9%). The decline in production also continued in the further processing sector. In the third quarter, 12% less was manufactured, while the decline over the course of the year amounted to around 8%.
"The further significant decline in the summer in almost all areas of our industry comes as no surprise. However, incoming orders are stabilizing at the current margin," emphasizes Marius Baader, Managing Director of the Gesamtverband der Aluminiumindustrie e. V. (GDA).
Incoming orders for rolled aluminum products rose by 8% in October. Although this means that orders are still almost 7% below the previous year's level, a slight trend reversal can be seen. Extruders also reported an increase in orders (5%) in October. This suggests that a turning point has been reached. However, at 13%, cumulative incoming orders are well below the previous year's level. The automotive industry in particular, which stopped production practically overnight at the beginning of the crisis, appears to be picking up speed again. Member companies are reporting a significant increase in call-off orders from automotive customers. The extent to which this momentum will stabilize and continue is still uncertain. However, the latest seventh GDA survey gives grounds for optimism: 75% of respondents stated that call-off figures from automotive customers are once again better than recently.
Dr. Andreas Postler from GDA emphasized: "We are still concerned about the situation in the aviation industry. Half of those surveyed are currently experiencing a standstill, the other half a further decline." The outlook for mechanical engineering and electrical engineering is better: In each case, over 40% of survey participants are currently reporting an improvement in incoming orders. The economic situation in the construction industry remains largely stable. Around 77% of companies currently rate the situation as better than recently or at least stable.
Outlook: Political framework conditions are decisive
While customer industries have largely bottomed out, the focus is back on politics. The USA has imposed considerable anti-dumping duties on aluminum sheet from Germany and other countries. The latest trade policy maneuvers by the outgoing US administration are once again causing deep rifts between Europe and the USA. Marius Baader emphasized: "Both the fact of imposing protective tariffs on products from Germany and the level of the tariffs themselves are a cause for concern. It is yet another attempt to seal off the largest market after China with unjustified trade policy measures. We cannot accept this. We very much welcome the fact that both the European Commission and the German government have already taken action to counter these tricks."
It is encouraging that the Commission has decided to impose anti-dumping duties on profiles from China. The investigation, which was officially opened in February 2020 after lengthy preparations, confirmed the suspicions. GDA is also optimistic about the investigation into certain rolled products: "The facts of the case are absolutely comparable to the profile exports from China. We expect that the Commission will also put a stop to this unfair competition," says Marius Baader.
On the road to climate neutrality, it is crucial for the German aluminum industry to be able to orient itself towards long-term political guidelines. "Aluminum is a material with the potential to make a decisive contribution to climate neutrality. However, this requires clarity on grid expansion, planning security for electricity prices and industrial policy support that is also geared towards industrial investment cycles," emphasized Marius Baader.
